Estimation of Heat-Attributable Mortality Using the Cross-Validated Best Temperature Metric in Switzerland and South Korea

This study presents a novel method for estimating the heat-attributable fractions (HAF) based on cross-validated best temperature metric. We analyzed association of eight metrics (mean, maximum, minimum temperature, maximum during daytime, nighttime, and mean, apparent temperature) with mortality performed cross-validation to select model in selected cities Switzerland South Korea from May September 1995–2015. It was observed that HAF estimated using different varied by 2.69–4.09% 0.61–0.90% six Korea. Based method, mean be metric, it revealed were 3.29% 0.72%, respectively. Furthermore, estimates improved selecting city-specific each city, is, 3.34% 0.78% To our knowledge, this is first observe uncertainty estimation originated selection metric present method.